{"id":967,"date":"2010-07-01T17:06:11","date_gmt":"2010-07-01T17:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/?p=967"},"modified":"2016-03-01T15:31:00","modified_gmt":"2016-03-01T15:31:00","slug":"why-africa-can-make-it-big-in-agriculture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/why-africa-can-make-it-big-in-agriculture\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Africa can make it big in agriculture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a title=\"Why Africa can make it big in agriculture\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/Why-Africa-can-make-it-big-in-agriculture.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-4776\" style=\"border: 1px solid black;\" src=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/Why-Africa-can-make-it-big-cover-211x300.jpg\" alt=\"Why Africa can make it big cover\" width=\"211\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/Why-Africa-can-make-it-big-cover-211x300.jpg 211w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/Why-Africa-can-make-it-big-cover-721x1024.jpg 721w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/Why-Africa-can-make-it-big-cover.jpg 875w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 211px) 100vw, 211px\" \/><\/a><strong>Self-sufficiency in food production is the new mantra of\u00a0donors and policymakers in Africa. But farmers, large and small, can be much more ambitious. Agriculture is the continent\u2019s most neglected \u2013 and important \u2013 potential\u00a0competitive advantage. It is Africa\u2019s best answer to\u00a0globalisation. Until farming is commercially viable, there will\u00a0always be hunger in Africa.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>By Mark Ashurst and Stephen Mbithi<\/p>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Why Africa can make it big in agriculture\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/Why-Africa-can-make-it-big-in-agriculture.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Download PDF<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Listen to the podcast of &#8220;Why Africa can make it big in agriculture&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[display_podcast]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A short walk from the Rwandan parliament, the Vision 2020 Snack Bar is a roadside eatery popular with Kigali\u2019s office workers and taxi drivers. The caf\u00e9 takes its name from Rwanda\u2019s national development plan, drafted by the government of President Paul Kagame \u2013 a choice which belies more than mere patriotism. Food is critical to Africa\u2019s prospects, and farming is the best hope for impoverished rural economies on which 70% of the\u00a0continent\u2019s poor depend. With more ambition, commercial agriculture would transform Africa\u2019s balance of trade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At a time of growing international concern about global food\u00a0security, the example of Rwanda is instructive. For the first time in recent\u00a0history, Rwanda produced as much food as it consumed in 2009. This is a\u00a0formidable achievement \u2013 and, at times, controversial. Rwanda is Africa\u2019s most densely populated country. Most smallholders occupy tiny plots of land, passed down and repeatedly sub-divided through the generations. In the land known as mille collines, or a thousand hills, their livelihood is freighted with larger significance. Ethnic categorisation of Hutus and\u00a0Tutsis was made illegal in the wake of the genocide of 1994, but a vast majority of rural smallholders consider themselves to be Hutu. President Kagame\u2019s administration knows that building food security for the rural population is the key to political stability, the foundation of Rwanda\u2019s much admired recovery.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As in Rwanda, so too for much of Africa: improvements in agriculture are vital to the continent, and to the world. Worldwide, at least a billion\u00a0people \u2013 one person in six \u2013 are hungry. By 2050, the global population is forecast to rise by a third. Africa\u2019s population is forecast to double.\u00a0Meanwhile, average cereal yields in Africa have shown no improvement since the 1960s \u2013 in contrast to steep rises in productivity throughout much of Asia. Over the same period, Africa has moved from being a net exporter to importing a quarter of its food. Rapid population growth, poor infrastructure and persistent under-investment have negated the benefits of new technology, improved seed varieties and growing international trade in food. In order to reverse this trend, new policies must unlock the potential for commercial agriculture.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_4777\" style=\"width: 808px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-cereal-yields-in-sub-Saharan-Africa-and-other-developing-countries.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4777\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4777 \" style=\"border: 1px solid black;\" src=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-cereal-yields-in-sub-Saharan-Africa-and-other-developing-countries.jpg\" alt=\"Cereal yields in developing regions (Source: United Nations, 2008)\" width=\"798\" height=\"589\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-cereal-yields-in-sub-Saharan-Africa-and-other-developing-countries.jpg 798w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-cereal-yields-in-sub-Saharan-Africa-and-other-developing-countries-300x221.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 798px) 100vw, 798px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4777\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cereal yields in developing regions (Source: United Nations, 2008)<\/p><\/div>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/h2>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The new fashion in development<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among donors, agriculture is once again the hot topic of international\u00a0development. A gamut of international agencies \u2013 including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Alliance for a Green Revolution in\u00a0Africa (AGRA) chaired by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi\u00a0Annan \u2013 have emphasised the need to improve productivity among\u00a0African smallholders. But the policies devised by governments and\u00a0donors imply a daunting lack of ambition. Worldwide, total production of food exceeds consumption. The know-how exists to keep pace with\u00a0population growth, and the means to feed the planet are within reach \u2013 if\u00a0only governments, and farmers, can find them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A constant refrain among policymakers is that smallholders must\u00a0become self-sufficient. \u201cIt is time for Africa to produce its own food and\u00a0attain self-sufficiency in food production,\u201d says Annan. Self-sufficiency is a\u00a0reasonable goal, but as the key determinant of policy it is ambiguous \u2013 and timid. About two thirds of Africans depend on agriculture for their\u00a0livelihoods, including a majority of those living below the poverty line. Many smallholders are, like city-dwellers, net purchasers of food. The rhetoric of self-sufficiency exhorts rural populations to grow more staple crops, rather than pressing for hard-headed policies to claim a larger share of the global trade in food.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<blockquote class=\"center\"><p>Until agriculture is commercially viable, there will always be hunger in Africa<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While the mantra of self-sufficiency is often misguided, the\u00a0underlying rationale for helping smallholders is sound. Higher\u00a0productivity means a better harvest for farmers. Better harvests should mean lower \u2013 and less volatile \u2013 prices. New technology has made it possible substantially to improve soil fertility and to cultivate drought-resistant strains of staple crops. Improved storage and better\u00a0management of national reserves can reduce waste \u2013 in 2009, more than 40% of Kenya\u2019s grain harvest spoiled in store. For aid officials keen to support measures which will reduce poverty, investing in agriculture can seem a deceptively simple proposition. Good intentions aside, the stakes are far higher than the narrow agenda of poverty reduction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Agriculture is Africa\u2019s most neglected \u2013 and important \u2013 potential\u00a0competitive advantage in the global economy. For as long as Asia is the engine of the world\u2019s manufacturing, and western countries dominate the pharmaceutical industry, Africans will continue to import their pots and pans, medicines and cars. Yet Africa\u2019s potential as a cost-effective\u00a0producer of food for export remains largely untapped, in spite of available land, improved technology and the low cost of labour. Although commercialisation of agriculture is often controversial, the\u00a0imperative of building profitable agriculture in Africa has been evaded.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Being competitive<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The patterns of global trade in food are changing fast. In recent years even China, long admired for its determined pursuit of self-sufficiency in food, has become a net importer of maize. For better and for worse, globalised commercial agriculture is coming to Africa. The reflex response has\u00a0often been to bemoan the \u2018land grab\u2019 by multinational food groups and\u00a0investors from Asian and Arab states, when a more practical reaction would be to devise strategies for more African participation in a burgeoning\u00a0international food trade. External demand brings the prospect of\u00a0economic growth and improved rural incomes. Agriculture must be\u00a0Africa\u2019s answer to globalisation \u2013 for large industrial farms and\u00a0smallholders alike.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Whether or not this can be achieved is, above all, a matter of making the right decisions in government and for business. First, policymakers must separate agricultural ambitions and investment \u2013 cleanly, and\u00a0unambiguously \u2013 from other measures to reduce poverty among rural populations in Africa. Both are absolutely necessary, but the rhetoric of agricultural self-sufficiency is a recipe for confusion. Food security is not the same as self-sufficiency among smallholders. These are distinct\u00a0ideas, but routinely conflated. For example, although Dubai is a desert, its wealth ensures a stable supply of imported food. In Africa, food security is contingent on greater economic efficiency, especially in agriculture. Africa needs food security, not\u00a0self-sufficiency in food.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The lesson is that growing enough food to feed the family is not the best policy for every farmer \u2013 as many arguments for self-sufficiency can imply. National food security is a legitimate priority for governments, but not an end in itself. The bigger picture is just that \u2013 bigger. Global\u00a0demand for food is a strategic opportunity to re-balance the iniquities of world trade in Africa\u2019s favour. While policymakers are surely correct to expect that rural populations should benefit from agricultural growth, the pursuit of self-sufficiency is not an effective tool to reduce poverty. Until agriculture is commercially viable, there will always be hunger in Africa.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">No African leader needs to be told that the fate of rural livelihoods may determine his or her own. Food shortages are the dominant public\u00a0concern in many developing countries \u2013 even more so since 2008, when soaring prices for staple crops sparked riots in parts of Africa, Asia and South America. The subsequent easing in commodity prices is unlikely to be permanent. Yet while new investment has picked up, the record of spending by African states is mixed. In 2003, African leaders adopted a\u00a0Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Since then, only one country \u2013 Mali \u2013 has consistently met the CAADP\u00a0target of spending 10 per cent of the national budget on agriculture.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">A question of scale, and value<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Being commercial means being competitive. In agriculture,\u00a0commercial has become a short hand for \u2018big\u2019. Commercial farmers are generally assumed to be \u2018largeholders\u2019 \u2013 typically, the big estates in Egypt,\u00a0Kenya, South Africa or Zimbabwe. This is wrong. In purely\u00a0economic terms, medium-scale farms are the hardest pressed to generate returns on investment: they require mechanised farming,\u00a0without scope for significant economies of scale. In contrast,\u00a0smallholders who labour by hand can be competitive \u2013 provided they\u00a0secure access to markets. Tens of thousands of smallholders, for\u00a0example, can achieve massive economies of scale by coordinating their crops and harvests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Plot size is a poor indicator of what is commercial or competitive. The proprietors of large-scale commercial farms often enjoy close ties to\u00a0political elites, which bring a disproportionate share of state benefits such as subsidies, infrastructure or a favourable tax regime. While\u00a0agri-business has become attractive to investors as a means to generate foreign exchange, smallholders often prove to be more diligent custodians of their land and ecology. In Kenya, smallholders have prospered in non-traditional markets by turning from staples to horticulture \u2013 a sector which has quadrupled in value since 1975. A better definition of \u2018commercial\u2019 would eschew any notion of size in favour of both being competitive and having access to markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Smallholders in particular must chart a difficult course between scale and value. In Rwanda, Vision 2020 includes a plan to agglomerate small plots into large, communally-owned rural \u2018clusters\u2019 to support intensive\u00a0cultivation of staple crops. For others, a better strategy can be to\u00a0diversify away from dependence on a single staple. In semi-arid areas of\u00a0Zimbabwe, varieties of finger millet have proved more resistant to drought and better suited to long-term storage than maize. Foreign earnings from Kenyan flowers, fruit and vegetables in 2009 were about a billion US\u00a0dollars, more than banking, tourism, telecoms or brewing.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The example of Kenya<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rural livelihoods around Mount Kenya have been transformed. While large commercial estates dominate production of roses, two thirds of\u00a0Kenyan vegetables are grown by smallholders. Farmed by hand, with strict controls on the use of fertiliser and pesticides, smallholders\u2019 green beans and sweet potato are premium crops \u2013 and of comparable quality to those cultivated by large-holders. Farmers typically earn six times more from horticulture than they would from growing maize. The extra money pays for school fees, medical care \u2013 and, of course, for food. For Kenyan\u00a0vegetable growers, food security means money in the pocket of the farmer \u2013 not food in the granary.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A visitor driving from Nairobi towards Mount Kenya is struck first by the lush green of the landscape, in contrast to the dry red dust of the roads. The climate is favourable, but the ground requires extensive irrigation.\u00a0A network of man-made canals, dating from the colonial period and\u00a0extended in the 1980s, is maintained by financial contributions from\u00a0local farmers who dig connecting ditches to their own plots. Smallholders\u00a0supply weekly harvests to larger farms and businesses which package their crops for export. About 5% of horticultural output is exported, mostly to Europe, earning about 50% of the industry\u2019s revenues.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Like any industry, the prospects for African horticulture depend on\u00a0comparative advantage. Kenyan horticulture owes its success to a\u00a0combination of location and organisation. Flowers, fruit and vegetables are perishable. In Africa, they are grown under the sun and farmed in the old-fashioned way \u2013 by hand. Sound infrastructure and regular flights to\u00a0Kenya enable swift delivery to Europe, often in the holds of passenger\u00a0aircraft \u2013 a fact ignored by European rivals who have campaigned, on\u00a0dubious grounds, against the \u2018carbon footprint\u2019 of air-freighted fruit and\u00a0vegetables.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<blockquote class=\"center\"><p>Small farmers may be risk-averse\u00a0but they are not hostile to innovation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Not all the factors which have enabled the spectacular growth of Kenyan horticulture are replicable, but many are an example to\u00a0policymakers elsewhere. Smallholders coordinate production within local groups, which in turn are highly integrated with exporters. Approved seeds and other inputs often are supplied by the exporters. A framework of\u00a0\u2018Private Voluntary Standards\u2019 devised by European retailers is carefully followed by growers. Kenyan farmers comply with the strict requirements of the Global Partnership for Good Agriculture Practice (GlobalG.A.P), the\u00a0internationally approved private standard for agriculture. Kenya is the only\u00a0African country with a local system of standards \u2013 Kenya GAP \u2013accredited by GlobalG.A.P.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">In defence of \u2018directed\u2019 agriculture<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Most smallholders are risk-averse. Many are wary of collective ownership and non-traditional crops. None will be convinced by policy statements. In\u00a0Rwanda, critics of President Kagame\u2019s reforms caution that at least some aspects of policy are coercive. Local administrators employed by the\u00a0government in Kigali are tasked with \u2018zoning\u2019 and \u2018mono-cropping\u2019 and the resettlement of rural populations in new village \u2018clusters\u2019. In recent years, Rwanda\u2019s policy has prompted comparisons with Ujamaa, President Julius Nyerere\u2019s policy of villagisation and collective agriculture in Tanzania in the 1970s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The circumstances of 21st century Rwanda are substantially different from those of Tanzania after independence \u2013 a difference which is to some extent disguised by the familiar rhetoric of self-sufficiency. Food security in Rwanda is a substantial achievement by the government,\u00a0rather than an organised private sector. In contrast, Ujamaa triggered successive food crises and deepening dependence on food aid. A more apposite comparison is East Asia. President Kagame\u2019s variant of\u00a0state-directed agriculture recalls the post-war management of infant industries in Japan, Singapore and South Korea, where government technocrats\u00a0decided policy and controlled capital investment. In that sense, Rwanda demonstrates a new and updated form of \u2018directed\u2019 agriculture in Africa.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Where directed agriculture fails, the consequences can be catastrophic. In Rwanda, the danger of famine would be compounded by the political risks of resistance among rural populations. To secure their compliance, smallholders receive subsidised seed and fertiliser from the government, and the promise, eventually, of a stake in larger co-operatives. Small farmers may be risk-averse but, contrary to some assumptions, they are invariably not hostile to innovation. Although few will be convinced by a seminar, most will be persuaded by the example of a neighbour who has prospered. In Kigali, policymakers have kept a close eye on Mount Kenya.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On closer inspection, Kenyan horticulture shares many characteristics of \u2018directed\u2019 agriculture \u2013 whether in Rwanda, or elsewhere. An emphasis on \u2018bulking\u2019 and uniformity of production is common to both countries. Large exporters arrange distribution of the best seed varieties, fertiliser and other inputs via farmers\u2019 groups. Instead of following government <em>diktat<\/em>,\u00a0smallholders follow the stringent demands of the export market. Kenya\u2019s horticulture farmers have prospered because they reliably produce high quality vegetables to meet the short inventory lead times of European supermarkets. The key difference is that, because horticulture is not a staple food, Kenya\u2019s dynamic private sector operates without interference from the government.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_4778\" style=\"width: 794px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-african-exports-by-type-as-percentage-of-GDP-95-06.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4778\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4778 \" style=\"border: 1px solid black;\" src=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-african-exports-by-type-as-percentage-of-GDP-95-06.jpg\" alt=\"African exports by sector as % of GDP, 1995-2006 (Source: United Nations, 2008)\" width=\"784\" height=\"586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-african-exports-by-type-as-percentage-of-GDP-95-06.jpg 784w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/CP_Why_africa_can_make_it_big_in_agriculture-african-exports-by-type-as-percentage-of-GDP-95-06-300x224.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 784px) 100vw, 784px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4778\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">African exports by sector as % of GDP, 1995-2006 (Source: United Nations, 2008)<\/p><\/div>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/h2>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">An African answer to globalisation<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The opportunities for African agriculture in world trade are real, and\u00a0demonstrable. Where food security is precarious, state direction of staple crops is inevitable in order to build up a national grain reserve. That is a different priority from the emphasis on self-sufficiency that has\u00a0become familiar from AGRA and other donor agencies. Self-sufficiency\u00a0implies growing enough to feed yourself \u2013 that is, to grow food for your own\u00a0family. It is not the same as national food security, which requires\u00a0access to a stable supply of food. More importantly, it obscures the crucial principle that agriculture must be competitive in local, or international, markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many African ministers, buoyed by a spate of new investment and\u00a0expressions of solidarity from Beijing, are fond of citing China\u2019s state-sponsored capitalism as an alternative to development models proposed by western donors. Yet China\u2019s Green Revolution, launched in 1978,\u00a0followed a more nuanced trajectory than many of the ideas\u00a0recently touted for Africa. To achieve self-sufficiency in grain, Beijing shifted\u00a0production from \u2018people\u2019s communes\u2019 to household farms, and opened state-controlled agricultural markets to private trade. Self-sufficiency in food brought political stability as a foundation for industry\u00a0and manufacturing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<blockquote class=\"center\"><p>The root of poverty is lack of money &#8211; not a lack of food.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Chinese-style industrial revolution will not happen in Africa without\u00a0reliable power, infrastructure and effective regional integration. But a genuine Green Revolution for Africa in the 21st century is within the bounds of possibility. Three decades on, rising prosperity in the populous economies of China and India has increased demand for\u00a0production of resource-intensive meat, adding to pressure on finite reserves of land and water \u2013 and driving demand for cattle feed. The global trade in\u00a0agriculture is both an opportunity and a threat. For Africa to maximise the benefits and minimise the risks, the overriding priority is to improve skills and know-how.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The prospects for African agriculture hinge on producing crops which others want to buy. The most productive investment will be in\u00a0locations where farmers, large and small, are able to integrate their\u00a0systems in response to market demand. Where the efficiency and low costs of smallholders can be combined with the market access and\u00a0quality controls of largeholders and exporters, Africa\u2019s farmers can\u00a0create a dynamic and market-led industry. For policymakers, the key\u00a0working principle is to remember that the root of poverty is lack of money \u2013 not a lack of food.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>COUNTERPOINTS<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The Counterpoints series presents a critical account of defining ideas, in and about Africa. The scope is broad, from international development policy to popular perceptions of the continent.<\/p>\n<p>Counterpoints address \u2018Big Picture\u2019 questions, without the constraints of prevailing opinion and orthodoxy. The arguments are forward-looking but not speculative, informed by the present yet concerned with the future.<\/p>\n<p>In publishing this series, Africa Research Institute hopes to foster competing ideas, discussion and debate. The views expressed in Counterpoints are those of the\u00a0authors, and not necessarily those of Africa Research Institute.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Self-sufficiency in food production is the new mantra of\u00a0donors and policymakers in Africa. But farmers, large and small, can be much more ambitious. Agriculture is the continent\u2019s most neglected \u2013 and important \u2013 potential\u00a0competitive advantage. It is Africa\u2019s best answer to\u00a0globalisation. Until farming is commercially viable, there will\u00a0always be hunger in Africa. By Mark Ashurst and Stephen Mbithi Download PDF Listen to the podcast of &#8220;Why Africa can make it big in agriculture&#8221; [display_podcast] &nbsp; A short walk from the Rwandan parliament, the Vision 2020 Snack Bar is a roadside eatery popular with Kigali\u2019s office workers and taxi drivers. The caf\u00e9 takes its name from Rwanda\u2019s national development plan, drafted by the government of President Paul Kagame \u2013 a choice which belies more than mere patriotism. Food is critical to Africa\u2019s prospects, and farming is the best hope for impoverished rural economies on which 70% of the\u00a0continent\u2019s poor depend. With more ambition, commercial agriculture would transform Africa\u2019s balance of trade. At a time of growing international concern about global food\u00a0security, the example of Rwanda is instructive. For the first time in recent\u00a0history, Rwanda produced as much food as it consumed in 2009. This is a\u00a0formidable achievement \u2013 and, at times, controversial. Rwanda is Africa\u2019s most densely populated country. Most smallholders occupy tiny plots of land, passed down and repeatedly sub-divided through the generations. In the land known as mille collines, or a thousand hills, their livelihood is freighted with larger significance. Ethnic categorisation of Hutus and\u00a0Tutsis was made illegal in the wake of the genocide of 1994, but a vast majority of rural smallholders consider themselves to be Hutu. President Kagame\u2019s administration knows that building food security for the rural population is the key to political stability, the foundation of Rwanda\u2019s much admired recovery. As in Rwanda, so too for much of Africa: improvements in agriculture are vital to the continent, and to the world. Worldwide, at least a billion\u00a0people \u2013 one person in six \u2013 are hungry. By 2050, the global population is forecast to rise by a third. Africa\u2019s population is forecast to double.\u00a0Meanwhile, average cereal yields in Africa have shown no improvement since the 1960s \u2013 in contrast to steep rises in productivity throughout much of Asia. Over the same period, Africa has moved from being a net exporter to importing a quarter of its food. Rapid population growth, poor infrastructure and persistent under-investment have negated the benefits of new technology, improved seed varieties and growing international trade in food. In order to reverse this trend, new policies must unlock the potential for commercial agriculture. The new fashion in development Among donors, agriculture is once again the hot topic of international\u00a0development. A gamut of international agencies \u2013 including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Alliance for a Green Revolution in\u00a0Africa (AGRA) chaired by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi\u00a0Annan \u2013 have emphasised the need to improve productivity among\u00a0African smallholders. But the policies devised by governments and\u00a0donors imply a daunting lack of ambition. Worldwide, total production of food exceeds consumption. The know-how exists to keep pace with\u00a0population growth, and the means to feed the planet are within reach \u2013 if\u00a0only governments, and farmers, can find them. A constant refrain among policymakers is that smallholders must\u00a0become self-sufficient. \u201cIt is time for Africa to produce its own food and\u00a0attain self-sufficiency in food production,\u201d says Annan. Self-sufficiency is a\u00a0reasonable goal, but as the key determinant of policy it is ambiguous \u2013 and timid. About two thirds of Africans depend on agriculture for their\u00a0livelihoods, including a majority of those living below the poverty line. Many smallholders are, like city-dwellers, net purchasers of food. The rhetoric of self-sufficiency exhorts rural populations to grow more staple crops, rather than pressing for hard-headed policies to claim a larger share of the global trade in food. While the mantra of self-sufficiency is often misguided, the\u00a0underlying rationale for helping smallholders is sound. Higher\u00a0productivity means a better harvest for farmers. Better harvests should mean lower \u2013 and less volatile \u2013 prices. New technology has made it possible substantially to improve soil fertility and to cultivate drought-resistant strains of staple crops. Improved storage and better\u00a0management of national reserves can reduce waste \u2013 in 2009, more than 40% of Kenya\u2019s grain harvest spoiled in store. For aid officials keen to support measures which will reduce poverty, investing in agriculture can seem a deceptively simple proposition. Good intentions aside, the stakes are far higher than the narrow agenda of poverty reduction. Agriculture is Africa\u2019s most neglected \u2013 and important \u2013 potential\u00a0competitive advantage in the global economy. For as long as Asia is the engine of the world\u2019s manufacturing, and western countries dominate the pharmaceutical industry, Africans will continue to import their pots and pans, medicines and cars. Yet Africa\u2019s potential as a cost-effective\u00a0producer of food for export remains largely untapped, in spite of available land, improved technology and the low cost of labour. Although commercialisation of agriculture is often controversial, the\u00a0imperative of building profitable agriculture in Africa has been evaded. Being competitive The patterns of global trade in food are changing fast. In recent years even China, long admired for its determined pursuit of self-sufficiency in food, has become a net importer of maize. For better and for worse, globalised commercial agriculture is coming to Africa. The reflex response has\u00a0often been to bemoan the \u2018land grab\u2019 by multinational food groups and\u00a0investors from Asian and Arab states, when a more practical reaction would be to devise strategies for more African participation in a burgeoning\u00a0international food trade. External demand brings the prospect of\u00a0economic growth and improved rural incomes. Agriculture must be\u00a0Africa\u2019s answer to globalisation \u2013 for large industrial farms and\u00a0smallholders alike. Whether or not this can be achieved is, above all, a matter of making the right decisions in government and for business. First, policymakers must separate agricultural ambitions and investment \u2013 cleanly, and\u00a0unambiguously \u2013 from other measures to reduce poverty among rural populations in Africa. Both are absolutely necessary, but the rhetoric of agricultural self-sufficiency is a recipe for confusion. Food [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":4776,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[64,28,26,187,188,124,65,49],"class_list":["post-967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-counterpoints","tag-africa","tag-agriculture-in-publications","tag-economics-in-publications","tag-food-production","tag-food-shortage","tag-green-revolution","tag-kenya","tag-rwanda"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Africa can make it big in agriculture - Agriculture in Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Food self-sufficiency is the new mantra of donors for agriculture in Africa, but the continent needs to develop its commercial farming in order to achieve food security.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/why-africa-can-make-it-big-in-agriculture\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Why Africa can make it big in agriculture - 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