{"id":942,"date":"2011-02-25T16:50:47","date_gmt":"2011-02-25T16:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/?p=942"},"modified":"2016-03-21T12:51:52","modified_gmt":"2016-03-21T12:51:52","slug":"elections-in-uganda-deja-vu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/elections-in-uganda-deja-vu\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9ja vu, in Uganda"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is the third of three blogs about Uganda\u2019s 2011 elections written by a Ugandan journalist living in Kampala who has asked to remain anonymous.<\/em><\/p>\n

In the run-up to Uganda\u2019s second successive multiparty elections on 18 February 2011, Ugandans keenly followed the popular protests that have swept North Africa. Dr Kizza Besigye, the main challenger to President Yoweri Museveni, indicated that Ugandans would be prepared to follow their lead and take to the streets if he did not win. It appears that the majority of Ugandans side with Museveni who insisted that \u201cthere will be no Egypt-style revolution here<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

The outcome of the elections were as opinion polls predicted. President Museveni was re-elected for a\u00a0fourth term<\/a>, receiving 68.38% of the vote, up from 59% in 2006. Besigye took a disappointing 26.01%. In the new parliament, Museveni\u2019s National Resistance Movement party continue to dominate, winning over 76% of constituencies. Voter turnout continued to decline.<\/p>\n

Reactions to the election results revealed that Besigye was not prepared for such a resounding defeat. In the past three elections \u2013 in 1996, 2001 and 2006 \u2013 Museveni\u2019s share of the vote declined, while support for opposition parties grew. Besigye was convinced support for Museveni would further fall, but he underestimated the tenacity of his opponent. Museveni racked up a\u00a0higher percentage of votes than in 2006<\/a>. The seven challengers for the presidency \u2013 Kizza Besigye, Norbert Mao, Olara Otunnu, Abed Bwanika, Beti Turwomwe Kamya, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali and Samuel Walter Lubega \u2013 played right into the president\u2019s hands, dividing any coherent opposition to his reign.<\/p>\n

Besigye described the elections as a \u201csham\u201d, and insists Museveni\u2019s re-elected government is illegitimate. While the conduct of the elections has been criticised, with Human Rights Watch claiming that political and human rights activists were detained, accusations of voter intimidation and violence are fewer than in previous ballots. Museveni reverted to the old trick of buying voters\u2019 loyalty. Edward Scicluna, the European Union\u2019s election observer mission chief, told the UK\u2019s\u00a0Financial Times<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile in the past the way of influence was with the stick and violence, now we\u2019re getting a lot of carrots: \u2018You give me a vote, I give you a bowl of rice or a goat\u2019 \u2013 goats and money were distributed … Definitely the ruling party has more resources and therefore a great imbalance, it uses scarce state resources as well.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Museveni becomes East Africa\u2019s longest-serving leader, overtaking Daniel arap Moi who ruled Kenya for 24 years. By 2016 \u2013 when Museveni completes fourth term \u2013 he will have been president for 30 years, joining an elite group of African leaders that include Angola\u2019s Eduardo dos Santos, Cameroon\u2019s Paul Biya, Zimbabwe\u2019s Robert Mugabe, and Burkina Faso\u2019s Blaise Campaore.\u00a0A real U-turn for a man<\/a>, who shortly after coming to power in 1986, insisted that heads of state who hold office for more than ten years have\u00a0outstayed their welcome<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Popular revolt to Museveni\u2019s rule is unlikely, for a number of reasons. Ethnic divisions remain strong in Uganda, and divide civil society. The opposition is reluctant to incite revolt for fear that Uganda will suffer the same fate as Kenya in the aftermath of the 2008 elections, when ethnic violence rocked large parts of the country. Nicholas Sengoba, an analyst, told\u00a0Bloomberg News<\/a>, \u201cMany people are fearful of rising up in case the violence turns ethnic, and goes the Kenyan way. If you entice people and then lose control, you could still be held responsible and that may end up at the ICC.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Kampala \u2013 Uganda\u2019s capital \u2013 offices, shops, schools and banks are open and running as normal. But the presence of security and military personnel in the city streets, alleys and suburbs is clear for all to see. Museveni warned that anyone one who uses \u201cextra-constitutional means\u201d to influence politics will be \u201clocked up\u201d. He appears to be staying true to his word.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Ugandan journalist explores the reasons why popular revolt against the 2011 election results is unlikely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[35,88,86,87],"class_list":["post-942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","tag-elections","tag-kizza-besigye","tag-uganda","tag-yoweri-museveni"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nElections in Uganda: D\u00e9ja vu - Africa Research Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The outcome of the elections in Uganda were as opinion polls predicted. 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