{"id":661,"date":"2011-03-28T16:39:17","date_gmt":"2011-03-28T16:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/?p=661"},"modified":"2016-03-21T17:09:25","modified_gmt":"2016-03-21T17:09:25","slug":"princes-progress-reconstruction-and-authority-in-eritrea-and-rwanda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/princes-progress-reconstruction-and-authority-in-eritrea-and-rwanda\/","title":{"rendered":"Princes&#8217; Progress: Reconstruction and authority in Eritrea and Rwanda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Eritrea-Rwanda.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-4770\" style=\"border: 1px solid black;\" src=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Eritrea-Rwanda-212x300.jpg\" alt=\"Eritrea Rwanda\" width=\"212\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Eritrea-Rwanda-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Eritrea-Rwanda-723x1024.jpg 723w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Eritrea-Rwanda-170x240.jpg 170w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Eritrea-Rwanda.jpg 1240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 212px) 100vw, 212px\" \/><\/a><em>April 2011<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Princes\u2019 Progress: Reconstruction and authority in Eritrea and Rwanda \" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/BN-1101-Princes-Progress.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Download PDF<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Eritrea and Rwanda are among Africa\u2019s smallest and poorest states. Substantial military resources, and\u00a0expertise, have enabled both countries to exert disproportionate influence over regional security.\u00a0Aggression and authoritarianism have not prompted matching responses from donor nations. While\u00a0President Paul Kagame\u2019s leadership of Rwanda has been championed as \u201cvisionary\u201d, President Isaias Afwerki\u00a0is accused of transforming Eritrea into a rogue, pariah state. These notes argue that popular perceptions\u00a0of these comparable, though seldom compared, countries have been simplistic \u2013 and polarised.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"message-box-wrapper none\">\n<div class=\"message-box-title\">KEY POINTS<\/div>\n<div class=\"message-box-content\">\n<div class=\"shortcode-list bullet\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Acute legacies \u2013 Eritrea\u2019s liberation war, Rwanda\u2019s genocide<\/li>\n<li>\u201cModels for Africa\u201d in mid-1990s, leaders praised<\/li>\n<li>Eritrea\u2019s proxy war with Ethiopia vilified, counters US strategy in Somalia<\/li>\n<li>Rwandan incursions in Congo tolerated, no diminution in aid<\/li>\n<li>Dissent and divisionism disallowed, repression decried<\/li>\n<li>Economic \u201cmiracle\u201d in Rwanda, Eritrea world\u2019s fastest-growing economy in 2011<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nascent states<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the mid-1990s, the survival of Eritrea and Rwanda as\u00a0viable states was in doubt. At independence in 1993, Eritrea\u2019s\u00a0infrastructure and economy lay in ruins after thirty years of\u00a0\u201carmed struggle\u201d with Ethiopia. In 1994, the Rwandan\u00a0Patriotic Front (RPF) took control of a country in which\u00a0800,000 people had been murdered in three months.\u00a0Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki and RPF military\u00a0commander Paul Kagame were touted as exemplars of a\u00a0new generation of African leaders \u2013 disciplined, capable and\u00a0incorruptible \u201csoldier princes\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With the demise of Mengistu Haile Mariam\u2019s Derg regime in\u00a0Ethiopia, Eritrea\u2019s prospects were buoyed by the likelihood of\u00a0an enduring peace with its neighbour. Visitors to Asmara\u00a0admired the prevailing sense of purpose and\u00a0resourcefulness, the absence of corruption or crime, and the\u00a0orderly demobilisation of tens of thousands of Eritrean\u00a0People\u2019s Liberation Front (EPLF) fighters as much as the\u00a0beauty of Eritrea\u2019s capital city. Africa\u2019s newest nation\u00a0attracted commitments of more than US$1 billion of\u00a0development and humanitarian assistance in the 1990s (1). The\u00a0Eritrean economy grew rapidly, if unevenly. A new\u00a0constitution, the prominence of women in politics and civil\u00a0society, and the promise of democratic elections boded well\u00a0for a country dubbed \u201cthe hope of Africa\u201d (2).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rwanda\u2019s recovery was more problematic, and precarious.\u00a0Genocide was succeeded by a civil war mostly prosecuted\u00a0on foreign soil. Rwandan forces invaded the Democratic\u00a0Republic of Congo (DRC) \u2013 then called Zaire \u2013 in 1996, to\u00a0counter the threat posed by exiled <em>genocidaires<\/em>. As Eritrean\u00a0troops were sent to assist the new regime in Rwanda,\u00a0political commentators referred to an emerging\u00a0\u201cAsmara-to-Kigali axis\u201d(3) of power. The invasion culminated\u00a0in the overthrow of Zaire\u2019s pro-Hutu President Mobutu and\u00a0installation of Laurent-D\u00e9sir\u00e9 Kabila in his stead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1998, seven years of peace between the post-Derg\u00a0governments in Eritrea and Ethiopia ended abruptly.\u00a0Simmering tensions between the former allies were\u00a0unmasked by a series of minor border incidents, and Eritrea\u2019s\u00a0decision to replace the Ethiopian birr with its own currency,\u00a0the nakfa. As if emboldened by Rwanda\u2019s seemingly\u00a0successful tilt at becoming the leading playmaker in Central\u00a0Africa, President Isaias rejected attempts at mediation by RPF\u00a0leader Paul Kagame and the United States. Three phases of\u00a0vicious fighting cost the lives of more than 70,000 Ethiopian\u00a0and Eritrean combatants \u2013 and more than a billion dollars \u2013\u00a0before an uneasy peace was restored in 2000.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Also Read: <a title=\"How Rwanda judged its genocide\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/publications\/counterpoints\/how-rwanda-judged-its-genocide-new\/\" target=\"_blank\">How Rwanda judged its genocide?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Eritrea and Ethiopia went to war in 1998, Rwanda troops\u00a0re-invaded DRC \u2013 and remained there until 2002. Despite\u00a0widespread criticism of the conduct and intentions of\u00a0Rwandan troops in DRC, Kigali began to attract the plaudits\u00a0once bestowed on Asmara. After becoming president in\u00a02000, Kagame earned increasingly voluble praise for\u00a0maintaining stability in Rwanda, overseeing economic\u00a0recovery, and implementing a <a title=\"How Rwanda judged its genocide?\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/publications\/counterpoints\/how-rwanda-judged-its-genocide-new\/\" target=\"_blank\">truth and reconciliation\u00a0process through traditional <em>Gacaca<\/em> courts<\/a>. In 2009,\u00a0Rwanda was welcomed into the Commonwealth as its 54th\u00a0member state.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<blockquote class=\"center\"><p>\u201cBuilding a nation from nothing? A nation that\u00a0has just experienced a genocide? There is no\u00a0strategy manual for this.\u201d\u00a0\u2013 President Paul Kagame (4)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">States of emergency<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Eritrean and Rwandan presidents have countered\u00a0adversaries, internal and external, with conspicuous\u00a0aggression. The imposing statue of a huge pair of shida\u2013 the\u00a0distinctive sandals worn by EPLF fighters \u2013 in Asmara, and\u00a0the Genocide Memorial Centre in Kigali, enshrine the\u00a0legacies that define the two nations. President Isaias has\u00a0been no more combative than his Rwandan counterpart. But\u00a0he has proved less diplomatically adroit at containing\u00a0international objections to his conduct.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Eritrea has spent a decade fully mobilised. The perceived\u00a0threat of Ethiopian expansionism, spearheaded by late Prime\u00a0Minister Meles Zenawi, has dominated President Isaias\u2019s\u00a0foreign and domestic policy. Ethiopia\u2019s refusal to allow\u00a0physical demarcation of the border with Eritrea, in keeping\u00a0with agreed peace terms, exacerbated Eritrean concerns\u00a0about their neighbour\u2019s intentions. Once a committed ally of\u00a0the US, and member of President George W Bush\u2019s coalition\u00a0of the willing, Eritrea has since been portrayed as a malevolent\u00a0regional spoiler. For his part, President Isaias has been cast by\u00a0his fiercest critics as delusional and megalomaniacal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Eritrea\u2019s objection to Ethiopia\u2019s non-compliance with agreed\u00a0peace terms is legitimate. But its diplomatic efforts to secure\u00a0compliance were heavy-handed, and short-lived. In Eritrea, the\u00a0border impasse evokes bitter memories of the UN\u2019s decision\u00a0to promote the federation of Eritrea to Ethiopia in 1952, and\u00a0international indifference when Ethiopia forcibly annexed the\u00a0former Italian colony a decade later. In the absence of an\u00a0enforced insistence by the UN or US that Ethiopia must allow\u00a0physical demarcation of the border, President Isaias contends\u00a0that continued opposition to Ethiopia by any means is justified\u00a0\u2013 and a matter of national survival.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_4773\" style=\"width: 355px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_aid_by_sector.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4773\" class=\" wp-image-4773 \" src=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_aid_by_sector.jpg\" alt=\"Click to enlarge (Source: UK Bilateral Aid Spending, DFID 2008-09)\" width=\"345\" height=\"590\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_aid_by_sector.jpg 383w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_aid_by_sector-175x300.jpg 175w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4773\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enlarge (Source: UK Bilateral Aid Spending, DFID 2008-09)<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">President Kagame evinces equal scorn for the UN, citing its\u00a0failure to intervene resolutely during the genocide. The\u00a0inertia displayed by the international community is further\u00a0blamed for allowing UN refugee camps in eastern DRC to be\u00a0taken over by exiled soldiers and Hutu militias who had\u00a0carried out the genocide. Rwanda\u2019s armed forces have made\u00a0at least four major incursions into eastern DRC since 1998,\u00a0and have supported pro-Tutsi rebel groups. For Kagame, the\u00a0perpetrators of genocide still imperil Rwanda\u2019s stability, and\u00a0future. Their crime, he argues, has merited exceptional\u00a0responses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">UN allegations that Rwandan commanders and troops may\u00a0themselves be guilty of genocidal crimes in DRC are rejected\u00a0outright by President Kagame. Accusations that Rwanda\u2019s\u00a0incursions were accompanied by the systematic looting of\u00a0Congolese natural resources have also been parried with\u00a0disdain. Despite some criticism from foreign governments,\u00a0including those of the US and Britain, Kagame has enjoyed\u00a0the support of successive US presidents and other world\u00a0leaders. Astute diplomacy \u2013 backed by frequent reminders of\u00a0the genocide \u2013 has secured international forbearance,\u00a0though not approval, for Rwanda\u2019s pugnacity.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">My way<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From the outset, the presidents of Eritrea and Rwanda have\u00a0emphasised their zero tolerance for corruption, and\u00a0commitment to gender equality, education and good\u00a0government. Vigorous development programmes in both\u00a0countries have been driven by authoritarianism. Dissent and\u00a0ethnic or religious divisionism are not tolerated in either\u00a0country. Power is concentrated in the hands of the president\u00a0and a small circle of senior advisers and military commanders.\u00a0Arbitrary arrests, disappearances, and politically-motivated\u00a0prosecutions are commonplace. Political competition and\u00a0critical reporting have been smothered. Human rights groups\u00a0have criticised Rwanda and Eritrea in equal measure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Eritrea, the principle of political pluralism is enshrined in\u00a0the constitution. But since the protest by the so-called\u00a0\u201cGroup of 15\u201d senior ministers in 2001, opposition to the\u00a0president has been divided, ineffectual, and mostly directed\u00a0from abroad. President Isaias cites \u201cparticipation in the life of\u00a0the country\u201d(5) as the measure of Eritrean democracy. There\u00a0are, he asserts, numerous fora through which Eritreans are\u00a0publicly consulted and can air grievances. But the tens of\u00a0thousands of refugees who have fled Eritrea since 2000 have,\u00a0paradoxically, been cited as evidence that the country is a\u00a0prison state. The US State Department ranks Eritrea as the\u00a0country with the worst human rights record in the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Also Read: <a title=\"Diehards and democracy: Elites, inequality and institutions in African elections\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/publications\/briefing-notes\/diehards-and-democracy-elites-inequality-and-institutions-in-african-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\">Diehards and Democracy: Elites, inequality and institutions in African elections<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Eritrean government\u2019s commitment to development is\u00a0longstanding, and genuine. Donor assistance has mostly\u00a0been withdrawn, or rejected for being profligate and of no\u00a0use. In 2005, amid worsening relations between their two\u00a0countries, Eritrea asked the United States Agency for\u00a0International Development (USAID) to cease operations in\u00a0the country. But Eritrea has been praised by the International\u00a0Monetary Fund (IMF) for \u201ccommendable progress \u2026 in\u00a0primary education and health, as well as in infrastructure\u00a0development\u201d(6). The country is one of only four in Africa likely\u00a0to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) for\u00a0maternal health, and one of a handful which met the \u201croll\u00a0back malaria\u201d targets set by the 2000 Abuja Declaration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<blockquote class=\"center\"><p>\u201cYou go and ask the Chinese [about] their\u00a0democracy.\u201d\u00a0\u2013 President Isaias Afwerki (7)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">President Kagame has been as proficient as President Isaias in\u00a0silencing domestic critics and opponents. International calls\u00a0for greater political pluralism are dismissed as an example of\u00a0western double standards. Kagame maintains that the\u00a0political process in Rwanda is fully inclusive. An annual\u00a0assembly known as the National Dialogue is described by the\u00a0Rwandan press as \u201cthe epitome of citizen participation\u201d (7) in\u00a0government. Turn-out in elections is always high. RPF\u00a0loyalists affirm the existence of a national consensus on the\u00a0undesirability of multi-party elections. The suppression, as\u00a0opposed to accommodation, of ethnic identities is\u00a0understandable \u2013 but fraught with hazard. Hutus comprise\u00a085% of the population, yet the Tutsi-dominated RPF secured\u00a0four-fifths of the elected seats in parliament in 2008.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rwanda has usurped, and exceeded, Eritrea\u2019s popularity with\u00a0international donors in the 1990s. The country is routinely\u00a0upheld as a model for post-conflict reconstruction, and was\u00a0selected by international donors as a test case for general\u00a0budget support. In 2005-09, Rwanda received almost US$2\u00a0billion of overseas development assistance \u2013 five times the\u00a0amount granted to Eritrea (9). Rwanda, like Eritrea, is on track\u00a0to achieve six of the eight MDGs by 2015. President Kagame\u2019s\u00a0distaste for aid, insistence on self-reliance, and forthright\u00a0handling of donors have matched those of President Isaias.\u00a0But Rwanda will remain heavily dependent on donors for the\u00a0achievement of its Vision 2020 national development plan.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_4772\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_maternal_and_infant_mortality.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4772\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4772\" src=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_maternal_and_infant_mortality-300x245.jpg\" alt=\"Source: OECD DAC database\" width=\"300\" height=\"245\" srcset=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_maternal_and_infant_mortality-300x245.jpg 300w, https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/BN_Rwanda_and_eritrea_maternal_and_infant_mortality.jpg 760w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4772\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: OECD DAC database<\/p><\/div>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Command economies<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Subsistence agriculture is the predominant livelihood in\u00a0Eritrea and Rwanda. In both countries, economic\u00a0management is highly centralised and members of the\u00a0ruling party dominate the private sector. But economic\u00a0performance has followed different trajectories. In 2004-08,\u00a0Rwanda recorded 8.6% average annual GDP growth while\u00a0Eritrea\u2019s per capita GDP contracted by an average of 5.2%\u00a0annually (10). Rwanda has been referred to as the future\u00a0Singapore of Africa. The Eritrean government\u2019s economic\u00a0strategy has been likened to that of North Korea.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The 1998-2000 war with Ethiopia, and continuing mass\u00a0mobilisation, have had severe consequences for the Eritrean\u00a0economy. Before the conflict, Ethiopia was the market \u2013 now\u00a0closed \u2013 for two-thirds of Eritrea\u2019s exports. A decline in\u00a0international development assistance, and negligible foreign\u00a0investment, have further handicapped economic progress.\u00a0Attempts to promote growth in agriculture, tourism,\u00a0construction, fisheries and ports have met with limited\u00a0success. Remittances from the Eritrean diaspora, voluntary\u00a0and government-enforced, are equivalent to about one third\u00a0of national GDP.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Natural resources have provided President Isaias with an\u00a0economic lifeline. A gold, zinc and copper mine valued at\u00a0US$1.5 billion \u2013 a sum greater than Eritrea\u2019s annual GDP \u2013\u00a0commenced commercial production in January 2011. The\u00a0Eritrean government holds a 40% stake. Progress by\u00a0international mining companies towards extraction of many\u00a0other mineral assets, including potash deposits\u00a0acknowledged as world class, is well advanced. Eritrea\u2019s\u00a0coastal waters are being surveyed for oil and natural gas.\u00a0Forecast GDP growth of 17% in 2011 will make Eritrea the\u00a0world\u2019s fastest growing economy (11). After a decade of\u00a0economic marginalisation, President Isaias has declared his\u00a0intention to \u201cstrengthen diplomatic activities focusing on\u00a0trade and investment opportunities\u201d (12).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rwanda\u2019s recent economic performance has been\u00a0praiseworthy, and encouraging. By 2017, when his current\u00a0term expires, President Kagame intends to transform Rwanda\u00a0into a middle-income \u201cknowledge-based economy\u201d by\u00a0exploiting competitive advantages in information and\u00a0communications technology (ICT), horticulture, tourism, tea\u00a0and coffee. A marked improvement in agricultural\u00a0production ensured that the country grew as much food as it\u00a0consumed in 2009, for the first time since the genocide.\u00a0Future growth requires diversification, and new sources of\u00a0employment. Rwanda is Africa\u2019s most densely-populated\u00a0nation. At the current rate of expansion, the population will\u00a0have doubled in 2006-16 \u2013 and will double again by 2035.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The achievement of President Kagame\u2019s economic ambitions\u00a0requires very high levels of foreign investment. Major\u00a0infrastructure projects have attracted funding, including a\u00a0modern rail link with Burundi and Tanzania, and a new\u00a0international airport at Bugesera. Much more is planned \u2013\u00a0Rwanda needs US$4 billion to extend access to power to 50%\u00a0of the population by 2017. Investment flows will be more\u00a0acutely sensitive to confidence in Rwanda\u2019s stability, and its\u00a0president, than international development assistance.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The tortoise and the hare<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Eritrea and Rwanda exert considerable influence in regions\u00a0often described as troubled \u2013 the Horn of Africa and Great\u00a0Lakes. As former soldiers, President Isaias and President\u00a0Kagame seem more at ease amid continuing states of\u00a0emergency \u2013 real or prospective \u2013 than with peacetime\u00a0government. But common stereotypes of the two leaders are\u00a0injudicious, and coloured by convenience.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">President Isaias\u2019s fall from international favour has been\u00a0rapid. In 2003, Eritrea was regarded as a key frontline state in\u00a0the US-led \u201cwar on terror\u201d. Subsequent isolation was both\u00a0self-imposed \u2013 motivated by anger at international inaction\u00a0and perceived injustice \u2013 and externally inflicted. Attempts\u00a0to counter Ethiopian hegemony severely damaged Eritrea\u2019s\u00a0international relations. But the first signs of <em>d\u00e9tente<\/em> are\u00a0discernible.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2010, President Isaias strengthened Eritrea\u2019s ties with\u00a0Qatar, China, Egypt, Oman and Iran. Natural resources have\u00a0endowed the president with a gilt-edged, arguably\u00a0face-saving, calling card. Significantly, Eritrea resumed links\u00a0with the AU in Addis Ababa. Relations with neighbours\u00a0Sudan and Yemen \u2013 base of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian\u00a0Peninsula (AQAP), labelled \u201cthe greatest single terrorist\u00a0threat to the security of the US\u201d (13) \u2013 are good. A resumption\u00a0of constructive dialogue with the US may not be imminent.\u00a0Eritrea\u2019s national motto is <em>akay\u2019da bobi\u2019ye<\/em>, \u201cat a tortoise\u2019s\u00a0pace\u201d. But a thaw in US-Eritrea relations would considerably\u00a0enhance regional stability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moral outrage at Rwanda\u2019s genocide, and guilt at the failure\u00a0of the international community to stop it, have underwritten\u00a0the high level of support for Rwanda \u2013 and President\u00a0Kagame. In marked contrast to President Isaias, Kagame has\u00a0successfully mobilised a host of former premiers,\u00a0globally-influential businessmen and celebrities on Rwanda\u2019s\u00a0behalf. Prominent journalists and academics have lauded\u00a0Kagame in the 2000s as they did Isaias in the 1990s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">President Kagame\u2019s domestic popularity should not be\u00a0under-estimated. But external criticism of the Rwandan leader\u00a0intensified during 2010. Publication of the UN Mapping\u00a0Report on possible infringements of humanitarian law by\u00a0Rwandan troops in DRC since 1993 exacerbated growing\u00a0unease. International reactions to the degree of autocracy on\u00a0show in the run-up to the presidential elections were\u00a0measured. Rwanda remains a more fragile state than Eritrea.\u00a0Threats to stability, both internal and external, loom larger\u00a0than any confronting Eritrea \u2013 and are potentially far graver.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The presidents of Eritrea and Rwanda have much in\u00a0common. Neither has sought personal gain from office. Both\u00a0are quick to castigate outside interference. Violence is readily\u00a0deployed to defend national interests and independence.\u00a0Marked authoritarianism accompanies constructive\u00a0development. Donor nations and organisations have by\u00a0turns been ridiculed, lambasted and embraced by both\u00a0presidents. Traits displayed in the 1990s, when both\u00a0presidents were lauded, remain to the fore. More considered,\u00a0evolving renderings of the two leaders are to be welcomed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div class=\"message-box-wrapper none\">\n<div class=\"message-box-title\">SOURCES<\/div>\n<div class=\"message-box-content\">\n<ol style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Country Assistance Evaluation \u2013 Eritrea, World Bank 2004\/ OECD statistics<\/li>\n<li>Toronto Sun, December 28th 1998<\/li>\n<li>Alex De Waal (ed.) \u201cIslamism and its Enemies in the Horn of Africa\u201d 2004<\/li>\n<li>Daily Telegraph, July 22nd 2010<\/li>\n<li>Interview with The Financial Times, September 18th 2009<\/li>\n<li>IMF Public Information Notice, December 2009 consultation<\/li>\n<li>Interview with The Financial Times, September 18th 2009<\/li>\n<li>The New Times, December 21st 2010<\/li>\n<li>OECD\/DAC statistics<\/li>\n<li>IMF Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook 2010<\/li>\n<li>Economist Intelligence Unit, 2011 country report<\/li>\n<li>www.shabait.com, October 4th 2010<\/li>\n<li>The Financial Times, October 31st 2010<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While President Paul Kagame\u2019s leadership of Rwanda has been championed as \u201cvisionary\u201d, President Isaias Afwerki is accused of transforming Eritrea into a rogue, pariah state. Popular perceptions of these comparable countries have been simplistic \u2013 and polarised.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":4770,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[64,476,63,163,168,141,164,165,167,54,27,475,166,49],"class_list":["post-661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefing-notes","tag-africa","tag-authority","tag-democracy","tag-eritrea","tag-great-lakes","tag-horn-of-africa","tag-isaias-afwerki","tag-mdgs","tag-party-politics","tag-paul-kagame","tag-politics-in-publications","tag-reconstruction","tag-regional-security","tag-rwanda"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - 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