{"id":11148,"date":"2016-12-28T07:00:47","date_gmt":"2016-12-28T07:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/?p=11148"},"modified":"2022-02-27T11:14:53","modified_gmt":"2022-02-27T11:14:53","slug":"10-things-watch-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/10-things-watch-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"10 Things to Watch in 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. \u00a0Political turmoil in Africa\u2019s two largest economies:<\/strong> In Nigeria and South Africa, embattled presidents are increasingly unable to provide the predictability sought by investors. A combination of outmoded and opaque decision-making, battles between rival political factions and a sense of perpetual crisis increases the risk of protracted recession. National pride doesn\u2019t help. In Nigeria, it prevents the government from approaching the IMF<\/a> for assistance; while many South Africans seem to regard any credit rating downgrade<\/a> as an affront. Lack of economic growth in both countries \u2013 or recession \u2013 impacts on 230 million citizens, or one in five Africans. It could also conclusively put paid to the \u201cAfrica Rising\u201d narrative promoted by international financiers and consultancies, with detrimental consequences for foreign direct investment flows to the continent as a whole.<\/p>\n

\"buhari-naked\"<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n

2. \u00a0East African rivalry over extractives<\/strong>: Kenya intends to become an oil exporter in 2017. Production has been expedited<\/a> to precede elections in August. As an 865km pipeline from the Turkana fields to the coast has yet to be built, oil will be transported<\/a> some 300km by road to Eldoret, and then 800km by train to Mombasa. Kenya\u2019s oil is waxy, meaning it has to be constantly heated<\/a> to 75-80\u00b0C. At current crude prices, the government will make a significant loss on exports. This convoluted and costly project came to the fore after Uganda and Tanzania<\/a> resolved to co-operate in constructing a pipeline from the Lake Albert oilfields to Tanga port, rather than aligning with Kenya\u2019s planned link to Lamu. Neither pipeline will be ready before 2020<\/a>, allowing plenty more time for regional rivalry<\/a>.<\/p>\n

3. \u00a0West African blockcha<\/strong>in:<\/strong> Senegal plans to launch a national digital currency modelled on blockchain<\/a>, the technology which underpins Bitcoin<\/a> transactions. This \u201ccryptocurrency\u201d will join the CFA Franc<\/a> as legal tender in Senegal and circulate alongside physical banknotes. Issued by the central bank of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, the eCFA could subsequently be adopted by C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Togo and Guinea-Bissau (all of which use the CFA Franc). A\u00a0common digital currency would promote interoperability between money payment systems, facilitating cross-border transactions in a region where the use of mobile money is taking off<\/a>. If, in due course, governments were to use the eCFA to pay salaries, pensions or social grants<\/a>, this could spur greater financial inclusion. Enabling citizens to make digital payments to government has been demonstrated<\/a> to reduce inefficiencies and corruption.<\/p>\n

4. \u00a0The promise of change\u2026and the likelihood of continuity:<\/strong> On 7 January Nana Akufo-Addo will be sworn in as President of Ghana. \u201cArise for change\u201d was a familiar refrain on the campaign trail, but delivering on this promise will prove harder than uttering it. With Ghanaian politics still significantly intertwined with clientelist networks<\/a> there might be limits to Akufo-Addo\u2019s proposed reforms<\/a>. In Angola, after 37 years as president, Jos\u00e9 Eduardo dos Santos is poised to pass the baton to Jo\u00e3o Louren\u00e7o. The Movimento Popular de Liberta\u00e7\u00e3o de Angola <\/em>(MPLA) selected Louren\u00e7o to head the party\u2019s list and thus succeed dos Santos as head of state. Regardless of the individual at the apex of the system, the MPLA is unlikely to loosen its grip<\/a> on the political realm, the forces of law and order, and patronage networks.<\/p>\n

5. \u00a0Debt shenanigans:<\/strong> Keep an eye out at the end of February for risk management company Kroll\u2019s audit report<\/a> into the three Mozambican firms\u2013 Ematum, ProIndicus and Mozambique Asset Management \u2013 that borrowed US$2 billion with secret and illegal state guarantees. There is little in the way of assets to show for the borrowed money and the Mozambican government now finds itself liable for the debt, taking the country to the verge of default<\/a>. The audit is expected to disclose the sheer scale of deceit and collusion on the part of certain politicians, parastatals and investment banks.\u00a0 Some individuals will finally have to face the music. In the run-up to Kenya\u2019s elections in August, further controversy can also be expected regarding the whereabouts<\/a> of some of the funds raised in the country\u2019s 2014 Eurobond issue.<\/p>\n

6. \u00a0Postponing poverty alleviation?<\/strong> The UK\u2019s Department for International Development (DFID), long regarded as a leader in its field, has radically shifted course since Priti Patel was appointed Secretary of State in July. She has pledged to align DFID\u2019s role more closely with UK trade interests. 2017 promises to be a legal minefield<\/a> for Patel, as she seeks to increase the proportion of UK aid spent by other government departments<\/a>, the CDC Group<\/a> (DFID\u2019s private sector investment arm) and by independent contractors<\/a>. Not all of these channels are as accustomed as DFID to meeting the criteria required for funds to be classified as official development assistance<\/a>. Some will also struggle to demonstrate poverty alleviation, which has been central to DFID\u2019s mandate since 1997 and enshrined in law<\/a> since 2002; and to comply with transparency and value for money criteria promised by consecutive Conservative-led governments.<\/p>\n

7. \u00a0A new urban agenda? <\/strong>The New Urban Agenda<\/a> signed at the Habitat III global summit in October 2016 is intended to promote sustainable urbanisation. Within days, the\u00a0demolishing and clearing<\/a>\u00a0of the community of Otodo Gbame, Lagos, \u00a0demonstrated that most informal settlements in Africa remain precarious. Urbanisation represents \u201ca critical opportunity for Africa<\/a>\u201d, but if the potential is to be realised slumdwellers \u2013 the majority of citizens \u2013 must be a central part of planning and development processes.\u00a0 We will be watching closely for \u2013 and drawing attention to \u2013 new research initiatives aiming to improve well-being in informal settlements (such as the Sierra Leone Urban Research Centre<\/a>), data collection<\/a> by urban poor federations, and examples of successful community planning. Knowledge is power.<\/p>\n

8. \u00a0A revitalised African Union: <\/strong>AU member states are expected to elect<\/a> a new commission chairperson. Five candidates<\/a> are in the running, after three contenders failed to obtain the necessary two-thirds of votes at the last summit<\/a>. The race could, however, be decided by a non-member. Morocco, which withdrew from the AU\u2019s predecessor in 1984, has thrown its weight behind Senegal\u2019s candidate, Prof. Abdoulaye Bathily. Rabat is hoping to rejoin the club and supplant Western Sahara<\/a>. This would require two-thirds of AU member states to endorse an amendment of the organisation\u2019s constitutive act<\/a>. Moroccan largesse may be attractive at a time when AU finances are in need of urgent attention: some three-quarters of the AU budget is currently funded by donors<\/a>. Rwanda\u2019s president, Paul Kagame, has assembled a high-profile team<\/a> to consider how the AU might fund its increasingly ambitious operations.<\/p>\n

\"gadoau\"<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n

9.Smartphones \u2013 Made in Africa<\/strong>: Onyx Connect, a Johannesburg start-up, will become the first company to manufacture smartphones on the continent. Starting at US$30<\/a>, their devices will run Google\u2019s Android operating system. Onyx might be sourcing the circuit-board designs and raw components from China, but South Africans will oversee the design and production. Against a backdrop of widespread youth unemployment, the creation of 600 jobs in high-end manufacturing and R&D could prompt further private sector interest in South Africa\u2019s tech sector. Move over Huawei?<\/p>\n

10.Asmara \u2013 Africa\u2019s modernist city:<\/strong> While 424 European cultural sites have been awarded World Heritage status, Africa has only 85 \u2013 an imbalance that needs\u00a0redressing. In July, UNESCO will decide whether to nominate\u00a0Asmara<\/a>, the capital of Eritrea, the most complete and remarkably intact modernist city in the world.\u00a0The 1,300 page UNESCO\u00a0nomination\u00a0dossier was painstakingly assembled by Medhanie Teklemariam, Dawit Abraha,\u00a0Edward Denison<\/a>\u00a0and colleagues at the\u00a0Asmara Heritage Project<\/a>.\u00a0Encompassing a whole city, the application is one of the most ambitious ever submitted and\u00a0in December 2016 was\u00a0awarded<\/a>\u00a0the prestigious President\u2019s Medal by the Royal Institute of British Architects.<\/p>\n

\"picture12\"<\/p>\n

Source: By kind permission of the Asmara Heritage Project<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our predictions for 2017<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[2693,192,2703,781,1980,578,2699,2701,2705,761,2694,1605,388,2706,1159,243,198,84,191,35,37,2702,518,1779,2700,2364,2696,2695,2542,170,216,1698,2697,2698,252,2704],"class_list":["post-11148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-2693","tag-african-union","tag-android","tag-angola","tag-architecture","tag-ari","tag-asma","tag-asmara-heritage-project","tag-audit-report","tag-bitcoin","tag-blockchain","tag-cfa","tag-china","tag-credit-rating","tag-debt","tag-development","tag-dfid","tag-donors","tag-east-africa","tag-elections","tag-ghana","tag-goodle","tag-governance","tag-imf","tag-modernism","tag-mozambique","tag-mpla","tag-nana-akudo-addo","tag-new-urban-agenda","tag-nigeria","tag-politics","tag-poverty","tag-priti-patel","tag-smartphones","tag-south-africa","tag-unesco"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\n10 Things to Watch in 2017 - Africa Research Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/10-things-watch-2017\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"10 Things to Watch in 2017 - Africa Research Institute\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Our predictions for 2017\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/ari-page001.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AfricaResearch\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AfricaResearch\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Niki Wolfe\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/10-things-watch-2017\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/10-things-watch-2017\/\",\"name\":\"10 Things to Watch in 2017 - 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