{"id":10571,"date":"2016-08-11T08:49:40","date_gmt":"2016-08-11T08:49:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/?p=10571"},"modified":"2022-03-22T17:59:30","modified_gmt":"2022-03-22T17:59:30","slug":"world-politics-review-10-august-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africaresearchinstitute.org\/wordpress\/world-politics-review-10-august-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"World Politics Review, 10 August 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nick Branson, Senior Researcher, was quoted<\/a> on the absence of policy debates in Zambia\u2019s election campaign and lingering questions over the credibility of a newly-established constitutional court responsible for hearing electoral petitions.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

Zambia Goes to the Polls Amid Government Crackdown and Fears of Fraud<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Karina Piser<\/a>\u00a0Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2016<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lungu was elected in January 2015 following the death of his predecessor, Michael Sata. For many Zambians, Lungu\u2019s admittedly short time in office has left much to be desired, particularly on the the economy. Lungu and his party, the Patriotic Front, are facing mounting criticism from the country\u2019s main opposition movement, the United Party for National Development (UPND), and have cracked down in an attempt to secure a victory in what is likely to be a close race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already in 2015, Lungu won with a margin of less than 1 percent, and his time in power has only made him less popular. After last year\u2019s vote, Hakainde Hichilema\u2014Lungu\u2019s opponent then who is again running against him in tomorrow\u2019s ballot\u2014immediately cried foul, accusing Zambia\u2019s electoral commission of fraud. Those allegations have resurfaced this year as Lungu vies for re-election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PF\u2019s tightened grip in the lead-up to the election has alarmed observers. While Zambia is situated in a historically embattled region, with chronically unstable Democratic Republic of Congo to its north, Mozambique to its east and Angola to its west, it hasn\u2019t seen the political violence, let alone the civil wars, that have plagued its neighbors. Zambia has even been lauded for democratic elections that twice resulted in a transfer of power to the opposition party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That relative stability, however, could now be in jeopardy. Lungu has cemented his authority during his time in office, shoring up loyalty he built while previously serving as minister of home affairs, minister of justice and minister of defense. In March, Zambian police arrested Erick Chanda<\/a>, a major opposition figure, after he accused Lungu of using public funds while on vacation in 2015. UPND members and supporters have been systematically detained for organizing peaceful protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PF has targeted the press, too. In June, authorities shut down Zambia\u2019s largest independent newspaper<\/a>, The Post, for allegedly not paying taxes, a move that Amnesty International called \u201ca disturbing development clearly designed to silence critical media voices.\u201d Indeed, The Post has recently been considered to be sympathetic<\/a> to the UPND, and the June shutdown wasn\u2019t the first time the newspaper had been targeted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The campaign has also gotten violent. After police shot dead an opposition protester in early July, Zambia\u2019s electoral commission temporarily suspended the campaign<\/a> in two cities, including Lusaka, the capital. The hostile atmosphere has lent itself to finger-pointing, but few observers doubt the PF\u2019s commitment to undermining the opposition. Lungu has reportedly readied his party\u2019s militia<\/a> to disrupt opposition rallies in the event of a contested election, although he might not need it\u2014he already enjoys the support of the police and security forces given his past ministerial experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOnce a bastion of democratic progress in an otherwise tenuous region, Zambia is now traversing a dangerous and altogether inauspicious path.\u201d<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s worth noting that, although Lungu\u2019s authoritarian tendencies are worrying, they have not necessarily appeared out of the blue. \u201cSince assuming power, successive Patriotic Front governments, beginning with Michael Sata in 2011, have flexed their authoritarian muscles,\u201d says Jeffrey Smith, the executive director of Vanguard Africa, a nonprofit organization that works to promote free and fair elections in Africa. Sata took a particularly hard-line approach to governance, Smith adds, and Zambia\u2019s \u201cdownward trajectory has evidently persisted since that time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against that backdrop, few expect a free and fair vote on Aug. 11. The opposition says a rigged election is all but inevitable, pointing to a spate of controversial moves that the ruling party has made to improve its prospects, including the presence of thousands of foreign nationals<\/a> on the voter registry. Also suspect was the swift implementation of a law granting officials from Zambia\u2019s electoral commission, the majority of which Lungu himself appointed, immunity from prosecution. Lungu has also criminalized any leaking of the commission\u2019s documents<\/a> and placed new bans on cellphone use<\/a> at polling stations, undermining the opposition\u2019s ability to report instances of fraud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHistorically, Zambia has been able to count on the relative independence of its institutions,\u201d says Nick Branson, a senior researcher at the London-based Africa Research Institute. \u201cHowever, the establishment of a new Constitutional Court\u2014responsible for hearing electoral petitions\u2014has provided the opportunity for executive interference.\u201d And while on Monday, the court ordered Cabinet and provincial ministers to vacate office ahead of Thursday\u2019s vote<\/a> as required by law, Branson doesn\u2019t see that as a genuine indication that the PF won\u2019t meddle with the election results. If anything, it\u2019s \u201can attempt to signal to the international community that the Constitutional Court is sufficiently independent to rule against the executive in the event of an electoral petition.\u201d But that\u2019s just window dressing. In fact, the ministers should have vacated their offices back in May when parliament disbanded ahead of elections. So the move \u201ccomes far too late in the day to be credible. The damage is already done,\u201d Branson says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With all that in mind, what\u2019s actually at stake for Zambians? The landlocked country, a major exporter of copper, has been hit hard by falling commodity prices, and Lungu has done little to soften the blow, exacerbating resentment of his leadership and even alienating many of his own supporters. Inflation stood at 21 percent<\/a> in June, but Lungu rejected an International Monetary Fund package designed to address rising inflation and spiraling debt; in contrast, Hichilema, who has a long track record in business, has vocally supported an IMF bailout<\/a>. But, Branson notes, neither Lungu nor Hichilema has \u201cspelled out particularly detailed plans, and Zambia\u2019s elections are rarely fought over policy differences.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The presence of electoral observers is unlikely to level the playing field, either. \u201cUnfortunately, Zambia fits a widespread and more troubling trend in the region insofar as elections are concerned. So long as election day transpires without widespread, brutal and overt violence, the African Union and other regional observers will undoubtedly deem them free, fair and credible,\u201d Smith says. \u201cOnce a bastion of democratic progress in an otherwise tenuous region, Zambia is now traversing a dangerous and altogether inauspicious path.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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