Fadumo Dayib – former presidential candidate and anti-corruption activist – Somalia

• Decision to run: I was always aware that we needed change in Somalia, but I thought that it would come from elsewhere, or from someone else. However, after waiting for almost 26 years, I realised that maybe I could be that person. In September 2014 I decided to declare my candidacy for president. I knew that from that moment my life would never be the same again.
• My experience as a woman: We have a proverb in Somalia that a woman’s place is either at home or in the grave. I was trying to negotiate a space between the two and some people were adamant that it would expedite my journey to the grave. I received a lot of death threats; an experience not shared by the male candidates in the race. These threats were very specific and on some occasions targeted my children. This was shocking and traumatising for me as a mother, knowing that what I was doing was going to impact on my children and perhaps put them at risk. Despite the threats I do not regret coming forward.
• Corruption: Corruption was the biggest challenge. Whenever I spoke to people in politics or power the first thing they would ask was “What do you have for us?”, “How much money do you have?” or “How much can you pay?” They were not interested in my vision for Somalia. This was very frustrating. How can you come into elected office through unconstitutional means and then demand that the citizens adhere to the rule of law when you yourself have not done so?
• Clan system: I declared my candidacy with the understanding that Somalia’s elections were going to take place under a one-person-one-vote system. However, 18 months later the government reverted back to the 4.5 clan-based system. This formula segregates Somalis in a way that is akin to apartheid. It supports the notion that the four major clans are ethnically pure, while the remainder – the 0.5 – are marginalised. It is unconstitutional.
• Towards 2020: In 2020, when we will hopefully have democratic elections, I will be running again. I truly believe 12 million Somalis deserve peace, dignity, prosperity and leaders who walk the talk and set a good example. Until then I will work independently in civil society to promote transparency and human rights, to make sure that we begin the process of bringing democratic accountability to Somalia.

George Bob-Milliar – senior lecturer at Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology – Ghana

• A model for the continent? 28 August 2013 was the day nine Supreme Court justices returned their verdict on an electoral petition raised by the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) about the conduct of the previous year’s election. In the preceding eight months, Ghanaians had been hooked, watching or listening to the litigation in court. At the end we were all convinced that there was something wrong with our electoral system. For example, it became obvious that there were systematic discrepancies between the results being returned at polling centres and those being returned at collation centres. This was happening on both sides of the political spectrum and it was clear these practices been going on in previous elections. The Supreme Court’s report exposed the myth that Ghana’s democracy was a model for the rest of Africa.
• Key campaign issues: The 2016 election was the first time that a sitting incumbent has lost an election in Ghana. Some commentators said that although John Mahama had served only one elected term his party had been in power for eight years, and that this historically has always resulted in a party being ousted. However, poor electricity supply and rising costs, a lack of job opportunities for young people and rising inflation meant that it was largely the economy that put paid to Mahama’s bid for a second elected term. Social welfare – the lack thereof – was also an important campaign issue. During their time in power the National Democratic Congress (NDC) invested a lot in infrastructural development, but they failed to address the welfare components of those structures; people still could not afford or access health insurance. The NPP campaigned to improve social welfare provision and on a promise to radically transform Ghana’s economy through industrialisation. But their election promise of setting up factories in all 271 districts in the country may prove difficult to deliver.
• State capture: In Ghana, whenever there is transition between the NPP and NDC, party footsoldiers view it as a coup d’état. Transition is improving at the level of national politics, but at the grassroots there is still a very strong winner-takes-all mentality. People see anything that is associated with the state as being owned by the party in power, and in the aftermath of elections in which power changes hands these footsoldiers seize control of state assets like public toilets and road toll booths. This way they ensure the revenue collected goes directly to themselves and not to central government.
• Room for improvement: Ghana has successfully consolidated its electoral democracy, but it is not perfect. Several challenges remain: the legislature is weak, the judiciary has problems and the economy is not producing the dividends that democracy was expected to bring.

Robtel Neajai Pailey – Liberian academic, activist and author

• Pseudo-incumbency: October’s election will be the first democratic transition in Liberia between two heads of state in recent memory. There will be no incumbent in this election as President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will step aside having served her constitutionally allotted 12 years. But Vice-President Joseph Boakai is almost a “pseudo-incumbent”. Being in a position of power, he has access to state resources that can be employed to give him an edge over his rivals.
• New faces: There are a lot of the usual suspects – the seasoned politicians – who will run for the presidency, but what is fascinating is the number of new aspirants with more technocratic or entrepreneurial backgrounds. These include Alex Cummings, the former chief administrative officer at Coca-Cola; Mills Jones, the former Governor of the Central Bank; and John Morlu, the former Auditor General, who is a viewed as an anti-corruption “messiah” in many parts of the country. So far these candidates have shown signs they can gather support in urban and rural areas. The 2017 election is shaping up to be an issues race in Liberia – it is not about the cult of the personality. Voters are asking questions like “What is your track record?”, “What have you actually delivered in the last 6-12 years?”, and “Why should we trust you?”
• Coalition building: Several political party leaders have realised that they cannot win this election in the first round. Coalition-building is necessary and at the moment the most powerful looks to be the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC), fronted by George Weah with Jewel Howard Taylor as his running mate. The CDC promises to be a “hot ticket” as it brings together voters from outside their respective ethno-regional bases and the early indications are that it can do well in areas won by Johnson Sirleaf in 2011 that are less supportive of her Unity Party successor, Joseph Boakai.
• Law enforcement: The enforcement of certain laws, or lack thereof, will be worth keeping an eye on. First, a residency clause explicitly states that if you have not resided in Liberia for ten consecutive years you are not eligible to run for president. This clause was not applied in the 2011 election, but a decision taken then by Supreme Court promised that it would be in 2017. There has not been much discussion about it so far, but if it does come up it may cause problems for the candidatures of Alex Cummings and John Morlu. Secondly, Liberia does not recognise dual citizenship. The suggestion is that several of the candidates, including Weah, who stood in 2011, would be affected if this is enforced. Finally, in 2014 a civil service code of conduct law was introduced that states anyone who is intending to run for elected office, either in the legislature or the presidency, must resign two years before the polls. There are a number of people vying for the presidency and seats in the House of Representatives who have not done so. If these three laws are raised and discussed it could lead to a constitutional quagmire.
• Women in politics: In 2006, just after Sirleaf was elected president she had five women with strong technocratic qualifications in her cabinet. There were five female superintendents, who represent the president in the 15 counties, and 13 female senators. In 2017, there are only two superintendents, three senators and three women in the cabinet. Of those cabinet officials one is the gender minister, which is a bit tokenistic, and the other heads up the National Investment Commission, a non-ministerial position.
• Sirleaf’s mixed legacy for women: Efforts to improve equality have struggled to make progress in the political sphere. A Gender Equity in Politics Bill put forward by the women’s legislative caucus in 2010 proposed a quota system, but Sirleaf was noticeably silent on it initially; even when she did express support, it was with no great enthusiasm. The bill was not passed and the fact that a female president would not openly champion a measure to give women an edge has filtered down to voters and shaped their attitudes against the need for these types of measures in the future. On a more positive note, Sirleaf, at least initially, tried to bring a lot of younger women into her political inner circle and she has done a great job improving market women’s access to entrepreneurial opportunities, in particular, and supporting efforts to improve financial autonomy. But whilst in the economic sphere there has been progress, in the political sphere Sirleaf has not done enough. The question a lot of young Liberian women are asking is “What about us?” “Is the glass ceiling so high that our president, who is a woman, has not completely shattered it?” “If so, why not?”

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Increasing attention is being paid to economic recovery in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. The term ‘recovery’ is problematic. It can imply a reversion to the way things were before Ebola. But rapid GDP growth then did not ‘trickle down’ – wealth remained concentrated in the hands of a small minority while poverty rates were among the highest in Africa. Economic diversification was minimal. The informal sector, which bore the brunt of Ebola, remains the dominant source of income in cities and rural areas alike.

Expert panellists Robtel Neajai Pailey (RNP), Ade Daramy (AD) and Biro Diallo (BD) discussed what needs to change in the way Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea manage their economies and how this might be achieved.

On Extractives

AD: Kono district has been the engine of mining in Sierra Leone for forty years yet it is a complete developmental backwater. I do not believe that extractives companies work in the long term interests of the country. Sierra Leone’s rapid GDP growth before 2012 was driven by mining, but where has it got us?

RNP: Liberia has an excellent revenue code. All six concession agreements signed since 2003 have included a requirement for social development funds. Deals cannot be struck without community or civil society involvement and scrutiny. However government oversight of implementation of provisions has been non-existent. We need a radical rethink on extractives. The sector was driving GDP growth of 7-8% but two-thirds of the population is below the poverty line. Agreements with mining giants like ArcelorMittal need to be revisited to ensure that more taxes are paid in-country, that there is greater accountability, and that they follow the rules and regulations set out in the legal code.

BD: I work in the mining sector but I am also a Guinean. I want all the industry’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) projects to work, but mining companies should not be confused with development agencies. We cannot change the fortunes of an entire nation on our own. Some projects we develop and hand over are then not properly run by the government or local authorities. People need to decide what they can realistically require from miners. If proper structures are laid down, we will have to follow them and we will be happy to do so.

On Agriculture

AD: One always hears about Sierra Leone’s high rainfall and fertile soil, but modern farming techniques are required to make the most of favourable conditions. Government only pays lip service to farmers. More support for small-scale farmers is essential and one way the government could help after Ebola is to provide seed funding. People are beginning to see the potential in agriculture and there is progress. Waitrose will be selling Karma Cola in 200 stores from July; ginger is being exported to Benelux. The potential of our marine resources also needs to be realised. We need to pretend that we never had mining when planning for the future.

RNP: Agriculture accounts for a quarter of Liberia’s GDP and half the workforce. But there is 80% food insecurity, land tenure systems need to change and large-scale land grabs are reducing access to land. The Minister of Agriculture has been very vigilant about seeking capacity building opportunities for young professionals at the Ministry. There are positive policy developments to build on, such as the 2009 Back to the Soil Initiative.  The economic empowerment of women is crucial. They are the backbone of agriculture, the informal sector and regional trade.

BD: In the coming lean season, one third of Guineans will be food insecure. Agriculture has not been very highly regarded in Guinea for various reasons. If you had an agriculture degree, people would look at you differently. But more young people are realising there is money in agriculture and the government is promoting it. Land is plentiful, but you also need capital and much better infrastructure. There are undoubtedly opportunities: it was only when regional markets collapsed due to Ebola that Guineans discovered tomatoes were grown in their country.

On Leadership

BD: The government gets blamed for everything in Guinea. If a tree falls down across the road, it’s the government’s fault. This is a negative legacy of the Sekou Touré era. That said, communication has been poor during the epidemic. Mining companies always want good, resolute leadership wherever they operate. Elections in October 2015 will be a judgement of how well President Alpha Condé has led the country.

AD: Ebola exposed the lack of trust between citizens and the state in Sierra Leone and compounded it. In 2013, there were suggestions that President Koroma would seek a constitutional mandate to run for a third term and his party seemed assured of another victory. Now, his handling of Ebola has finished off any prospect of a third term and his party could conceivably lose the election. Corrupt politicians are unconcerned by accusations levelled at them.

RNP: People are completely disillusioned with the government. In December 2014, Liberia held legislative elections for 15 senators. Only two were re-elected. During Ebola, citizens quickly realised that they had to take matters into their own hands. The US$604m draft national budget, if passed, allocates one third  of spending to government salaries against US$73m on health and a similar amount on education. A health care officer earns a fraction of a legislator’s pay. This sort of thing cannot continue. We have had a wake-up call.

On the Mano River Union (MRU)

AD: Just as Ebola did not separate the countries of the Union, neither should the response. The interconnectedness of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone can be an advantage. Planning across countries is essential.

BD: The MRU structure is there, it is a good platform to allow for discussion and the pooling of resources.

RNP: There has been some regional solidarity, but we need to do more together, for example in deciding and setting out exactly what we want from foreign direct investment in the region. Harmonisation of legal codes would be helpful and a regional medical centre of excellence would be a good idea for obvious reasons.

On Education

RNP: The government of Liberia needs to pay better salaries to health workers and teachers, give them better incentives, opportunities for learning and see it as a long-term investment in the country’s future.

AD: Ebola has exposed the fact that virtually nothing works in Sierra Leone. Many of the countries’ ills stem from the failure of education and health care. This has nothing to do with the civil war or Ebola.   Teaching is no longer regarded as a vocation in Sierra Leone and educational standards have plummeted. Miners earn three times the salary of teachers, so this is one reason why you get teachers who are only half-trained. The government needs to invest in education in order to change attitudes. The private sector must help. Instead of complaining about the low quality of staff larger companies should invest in educational facilities that meet their needs.

On the future

RNP: Liberia’s Agenda for Transformation is a solid document. It can be adapted and used to deliver inclusive growth, decent work, a living wage and basic social services. Profit has been put above people and GDP growth rates ahead of human development. We cannot go back to where we were, we need people-driven and people-centred growth.

AD: It has taken over ten years for people to see Sierra Leone as a ‘post-war’ country, so to become a post-Ebola ‘investment opportunity’ will require a concerted effort. The role for the private sector and diaspora should be to build on the development plans we have already drawn up, like the Agenda for Prosperity.

BD: The government needs to decide what it wants to focus on and then guide the key sectors – no government can do everything. Guineans do not need more plans, they are tired of plans. It is time for action.

Comments attributed to the speakers are not direct quotations 

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